For 15 Years, Israel Ignored Warnings of a 'Diplomatic Tsunami.' Now It Has Arrived
Fifteen years ago, during a 2011 speech at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank with close ties to the security establishment, then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned that Israel was about to face "a diplomatic tsunami, of which most of the public is not aware."
At the time, the United Nations General Assembly was poised to vote on making the State of Palestine a "non-member observer state." Barak cautioned that the move, which amounted to formal international recognition of Palestinian statehood – and therefore membership in UN committees, as well as the ability to petition the International Criminal Court – would set the stage for intensified pressure on Israel and even its "delegitimization" if Israel did not reach a compromise with the Palestinians.
In November 2012, the General Assembly voted by an overwhelming majority to recognize the State of Palestine. But then the "tsunami" that Barak had urgently warned of did not come.
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In fact, little seemed to change in the wake of the vote. The recognition of the State of Palestine turned out to be a mainly symbolic shift. The vote perhaps buoyed international civil society groups, which could marshal it as evidence in their activism. On the ground in Israel-Palestine, no less than in the halls of European capitals, however, things remained more or less the same. Israeli settlement construction continued, the occupation deepened, and few international leaders signaled readiness to meaningfully pressure Israel to change course.
For more than a decade, it looked like Barak's prediction was wrong – that Israel would continue to enjoy international impunity for its human rights violations. Right-wing Israeli leaders, chief among them Prime Minister Netanyahu, seized on the former defense minister's remarks as proof of the left's alarmist defeatism and took credit for the ability to shield Israel from consequences.
Israel's prosecution of the recent war in Gaza changed all that. After a devastating war, with more than 70,000 Palestinians killed and the entire Strip reduced to rubble, the "diplomatic tsunami" has arrived.
Forms of international pressure and legal consequences that were once unthinkable have become a reality. In November 2024, the ICC issued arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. In the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Israel stands accused of committing genocide.
Sanctions against Israeli individuals and organizations are no longer theoretical. Just last May, the European Union adopted new measures against the radical settler group Nachala and its leader, Daniella Weiss, the settler lobby Regavim and its director Meir Deutsch, the settler vigilante group HaShomer Yosh and its leader Avichai Suissa, and Amana, the settler movement's housing-construction arm.
In June, France barred Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from entering the country. Even the United States, typically allergic to such measures, issued sanctions against 33 settler groups and individuals in 2024 under the Biden administration before the Trump administration undid them.
In Europe, Israel's largest trading partner, the association agreement granting Israel preferential access to European markets hangs by a thread. In April, EU foreign ministers narrowly declined to suspend the agreement entirely, with Germany and Italy the leading opposition to the move, which would have required a unanimous vote of all 27 EU states.
These steps, as unprecedented (and belated) as they are, will pale in comparison with what is to come.
Israel's diplomatic isolation continues to deepen. Much of the European public views Israel as a rogue state, and it is only a matter of time before even current staunch allies, like Germany, are forced to respond to popular sentiment. The next time EU states look to suspend the association agreement or adopt more sweeping sanctions, it is unlikely that either Germany or Italy will stand in the way.
In the United States, the humiliating failure of the joint U.S.-Israeli war in Iran has supercharged the anti-Israel sentiment that was already surging. When the current memorandum of understanding that provides U.S. military aid expires in 2028, it is unlikely to be renewed at anywhere near its current levels. Regardless of whether a Democratic or Republican president is elected next, the U.S.–Israel relationship is set to be seriously downgraded.
The recent remarks of Vice President JD Vance both reflected the current reality of Israel's global standing and, in their tone, portend where U.S.–Israel relations are headed in Washington, where patience has worn thin. "Donald J. Trump," Vance said during a press conference last month, "is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment." In two years, Trump will be gone.
In Israel, meanwhile, Netanyahu and his coalition allies continue to push forward as if nothing fundamental has changed: systematically entrenching the occupation of the West Bank so as to make the creation of a Palestinian state increasingly unfeasible; dismantling the country's remaining vestiges of procedural democracy through attacks on the judiciary, the attorney general, and the rule of law; destabilizing the region by maintaining military occupations in Lebanon and Syria, in addition to the still-simmering humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.
One of the perverse achievements of Netanyahu's more than fifteen years in power has been his ability to insulate Israel and Israelis from the consequences of their government's actions. Even now, daily life in Israel has returned to its routine after interruption by ballistic missiles during the Iran war, and Israelis have returned to travelling in Europe this summer, enjoying the benefits of the shekel's recent appreciation against the dollar.
Yet the clock will soon run out. And as Ehud Barak observed back in 2011, most of the Israeli public is unaware of just how close Israel stands on the threshold of a new era, in which it is a pariah state, sanctioned by what were once its major trading partners and, even more significantly, shunted to the side by the superpower on which it has long depended to survive.
Save for the most recent military adventure in Iran, Israel has won the battles of the post-October 7 war. Hamas does not pose a serious military threat to Israel, and Hezbollah's capabilities have been degraded, although less than Israeli defense analysts thought.
But Israel is losing the larger war. Israel, after 1,000 days of fighting, is in the worst geostrategic position it has been in recent memory, having torched whatever political capital it retained, bogged down in costly and fruitless occupations on every side of its would-be borders.
If Netanyahu is replaced by Gadi Eisenkot or Naftali Bennett, they will likely enjoy a grace period, in which they will need to show that they are committed to turning the ship around. Foreign leaders in Europe and the Middle East remain eager for an Israel that is normal, trustworthy, and can be counted on to act as a law-abiding member of the family of nations.
But there will not be much patience for an Israel that continues on its current course. The onus, then, will be on whoever succeeds Netanyahu, assuming he does not hold on to power, to prove that the change is more than cosmetic.